Drive by hiage!

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Arligive
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Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:31 pm

Drive by hiage!

Post by Arligive » Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:53 pm

Hey folks, Arli here from daoc, lotro. Was just thinking about a few of you guys I played lotro with and wanted to say hi.

I've been playing AoC with Nature's Fury before the guild quit en masse from that steaming pile of shit. A ton of us have been playing closed/guild beta in WAR and may be playing Order on same server as Cairdeas and Wyrd (since we think the destruction/order ratio is going to be around 2:1) What are your WAR plans?

Well I hope all is well with Jay, Astaldo, Sleep, Edge, etc... had a blast playing lotro with you all.

Arligive (Arli)

Mr.Muggles
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Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 2:46 pm

Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by Mr.Muggles » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:12 pm

we are probably playing destruction.

But playing destruction on the same server you guys play order would be pretty awesome i think.

Most of us are in beta. We have about 20 old school coming back to play like Ilk, Kwaka, Donlep, Baylok, Innorast, Yaspus, me, Warduke, Emod, Enz and a bunch of others. Plus we have some people playing from LOTRO and AOC.

Maybe you should return to reunion arli. :D

Shaftoe
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Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:31 am

Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by Shaftoe » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:14 pm

Hey bud, Good to see you! AoC was a steaming pile of shite! Hopefully see you in WAR!
Apparently I cannot find a game to stick with right now.

donlep
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Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by donlep » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:05 am

hey arli good to hear from you
what makes u think destruction will outnumber order by that much?
i know they have been big in beta, i have been in the eu beta from first invites where sent out
and generally there they have 40-50% more than order
i do however firmly believe that the people u see in beta= signed up years ago etc, are very different from the people that buy the game off the shelf
so i expect it to be close to even, and if it hadnt been for all the people claiming othervise, i would likely still believe order would outnumber destruction, atleast after hedstart
ahh anyway we will see i guess:)
lvling up aint that hard so could always do a sideswap if its totally fubar
WAR eubeta tester
meataxe choppa first to 40 destruction side meatvaporizer BW first to 40 order side, 1st beta phase
donlep 40/35 zealot
meatvaporizer 21/19 sorc
talsalmule 15/13 chosen

Arligive
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:31 pm

Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by Arligive » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:36 pm

hey arli good to hear from you
what makes u think destruction will outnumber order by that much?
i know they have been big in beta, i have been in the eu beta from first invites where sent out
and generally there they have 40-50% more than order
i do however firmly believe that the people u see in beta= signed up years ago etc, are very different from the people that buy the game off the shelf
so i expect it to be close to even, and if it hadnt been for all the people claiming othervise, i would likely still believe order would outnumber destruction, atleast after hedstart
ahh anyway we will see i guess:)
lvling up aint that hard so could always do a sideswap if its totally fubar
Hey Shaftoe! Well I'm glad that my time playing lotro had a good outcome in introducing a great player to a great guild! Glad to see you stuck around bud!

Don, I am making that assumption based on two things really, so my argument is not terribly strong, but it may be compelling at least. First, before they took out the population counts on the US servers that you could see when you first logged in, I only counted one instance in prime-time play where a server had more order than destruction. I started running the tests nightly at 8 pm cst and initially only had Warpstone and Tyrion to survey, but that increased of course recently when they added the three additional servers. I simply logged in and took note of the population count listed.

The following was pretty much what I was seeing consistently (pulled from a thread over on NFs forums):

Tyrion Total: 1351 Order: 523 (39%) Destruction: 828 (61%) Favored: Destruction +22%
Abhorash Total: 1690 Order: 581 (34%) Destruction: 1109 (66%) Favored: Destruction +32%
Barak Varr Total: 2312 Order: 1034 (45%) Destruction: 1278 (55%) Favored: Destruction +10%
Mad Dog Pass* Total: 629 Order: 216 (34%) Destruction: 413 (66%) Favored: Destruction +32%

That's not exactly 2:1, but it is significant if it holds true on launch. Note that once the CE Beta started, those folks could not access Warpstone, so its population nose-dived, but remained one that favored Destruction.

My second basis for this assumption is even shakier, as it relies on the belief that players from other games (particularly WoW) who give WAR a shot are going to be immediately drawn to the feel of the Destruction zones, particularly if they played Horde in WoW. Add to this what I believe is a natural tendency for the 16-21 demographic to play a realm that is oriented towards the same themes as we find in Destruction/Horde/Generally-Bad-Guy realms. The hunch is that you will see a reverse of what happened when WoW launched, when the kidz flocked to Alliance and more seasoned guilds went Horde (which kinda disproves my previous point, but like I said, it's a shakier assessment).

All that being said, I would give the population edge clearly to Destruction on launch. Which, in an RvR game, gives them the edge across the board and makes Order's job that much more difficult. I envision a repeat of the portal keep camping in emain, but on a larger scale (now I'm not sure why we want to roll Order, come to think of it...)

Anyway, I could be way off on this and you could be totally correct that you cannot generalize from beta pop counts to launch pop counts, but it was really all I had to go with when I began to wonder about it.

Arligive
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:31 pm

Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by Arligive » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:43 am

So a few hours after that post I come across the following. Figures.


"War population heading towards equilibrium."

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Sleeps
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Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by Sleeps » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:57 pm

Hi Arli

donlep
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Re: Drive by hiage!

Post by donlep » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:34 pm

yeah im not saying you are wrong, u could very well be right
me thinking order will be biggest is solely a feeling based on assumptions aswell
but in all games i have played to date, what could be thought of as the good guys has had more people

what could change this for this game is that tbh destruction looks better in this game, im afraid alot of the people that want to play the big hero wont go for a short dwarf or a skinny elf

so yeah as i said, initially i figured order would be by far bigger, now im leaning more towards somewhat even numbers, and with somewhat even numbers, it could very well be that some servers are big for one side others for the other, especially since alot of people flock to the winners, so if destruction is winning on one server it may see alot of people flocking there to play destruction, and the same goes for order offcourse

what worries me a bit is that preorder people could be of the same mold as beta people
and since the plan is to open more servers as they become needed, i fear that the initial preorder servers could very well be destruction heavy, whereas the aditional servers they open up after normal release may be order heavy

bah who cares about all this speculation we will see at release wich luckily isnt far off now:)
WAR eubeta tester
meataxe choppa first to 40 destruction side meatvaporizer BW first to 40 order side, 1st beta phase
donlep 40/35 zealot
meatvaporizer 21/19 sorc
talsalmule 15/13 chosen

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